Race 5Handicap

SPORTSBET BLACKBOOK BM52 HANDICAP ($16K)

TBA AEDT2012m16,00016 runners

AI Best Bet

#2 Second GuessJ: Cassidy Hill

Second Guess boasts a strong career place percentage and a very favourable inside barrier. This horse has shown ability to handle the distance and the trainer/jockey combination is reliable. Looks like the best bet in a moderate field, poised for a strong run.

Excellent barrier drawStrong career place rateSuited by distanceReliable jockey/trainer

Each-Way Value: Parabellum

78%

Confidence

AI Race Summary

This BM52 Handicap over 2012m presents a challenging field with many horses struggling for consistent form. The race lacks a standout contender, suggesting value might be found with horses who can handle the distance and have a slight edge in recent performances or class. Barrier draws will be crucial over this staying trip.

AI Selections & Analysis (16 runners)

Second Guess

Barrier 2 · 127kg · Form: —

LOW RISK

CAREER20:2-5

Jockey:Cassidy Hill

Trainer:John Heath

Excellent barrier drawStrong career place rateSuited by distanceReliable jockey/trainer

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

Track Form

Distance Form

Recent Form

Class Rating

Jockey Form

Trainer Form

Weight Handicap

Parabellum

Barrier 5 · 121kg · Form: —

MEDIUM RISK

CAREER38:4-3

Jockey:Jake Duffy

Trainer:Andrew Dale

Parabellum has a solid career win rate for this grade and a good barrier draw. The trainer has a good record, and if the horse brings its best, it's a strong each-way contender. Looks to be one of the better chances in a wide-open race.

Good career win rateFavourable barrierCapable trainerSuited by distance

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

Track Form

Distance Form

Recent Form

Class Rating

Jockey Form

Trainer Form

Weight Handicap

Mash And Gravy

Barrier 3 · 130kg · Form: —

MEDIUM RISK

CAREER30:3-5

Jockey:Adam Mccabe

Trainer:Rachael Cunningham

Mash And Gravy has a solid career place percentage for this grade and draws well. If the recent form can improve slightly, this horse could be a strong contender given the overall weakness of the field. The distance and class suit.

Good career place rateFavourable barrierSuited by distance

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

Track Form

Distance Form

Recent Form

Class Rating

Jockey Form

Trainer Form

Weight Handicap

Shintaro Samurai

Barrier 10 · 119kg · Form: —

MEDIUM RISK

CAREER13:1-3

Jockey:Cory Parish

Trainer:Dennis Julius

Shintaro Samurai has a surprisingly good place percentage for its limited career starts and a reasonable barrier. If the horse can improve on its last few runs, it could be a value play. An interesting prospect for an each-way bet.

Good career place percentageReasonable barrierPotential for improvement

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

Track Form

Distance Form

Recent Form

Class Rating

Jockey Form

Trainer Form

Weight Handicap

Carlito Brigante

Barrier 12 · 119kg · Form: —

MEDIUM RISK

CAREER35:4-2

Trainer:Jason Evans

Carlito Brigante has a decent win rate for this grade but a wide barrier and no jockey named are concerns. If a capable jockey is secured, this horse could be a factor given its career wins. A speculative each-way chance.

Good career win rateWide barrierNo jockey named (concern)

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

Track Form

Distance Form

Recent Form

Class Rating

Jockey Form

Trainer Form

Weight Handicap

Patrick

Barrier 9 · 123kg · Form: —

MEDIUM RISK

CAREER35:3-3

Jockey:Milos Bunjevac

Trainer:Shelley Kirkpatrick

Patrick has a moderate career record but could be an each-way chance if the jockey can navigate from the middle barrier. The horse has shown glimpses of form that could see it competitive in this grade. Needs to put it all together.

Moderate career recordMiddle barrier drawCapable on best form

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

Track Form

Distance Form

Recent Form

Class Rating

Jockey Form

Trainer Form

Weight Handicap

Red Stiletto

Barrier 11 · 128kg · Form: —

MEDIUM RISK

CAREER53:6-5

Jockey:Liam Riordan

Trainer:Tyson Barton

Red Stiletto is a seasoned campaigner with a decent win rate for this grade, but the wide barrier and recent form are concerns. If the trainer has found the key, this horse could surprise, but it's a speculative play. Needs to lift.

Experienced campaignerWide barrier drawInconsistent recent form

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

Track Form

Distance Form

Recent Form

Class Rating

Jockey Form

Trainer Form

Weight Handicap

Tarshin

Barrier 8 · 125kg · Form: —

HIGH RISK

CAREER26:2-3

Jockey:Neil Farley

Trainer:Charles Cassar

Tarshin has a moderate career record and while the barrier is acceptable, the overall form doesn't inspire confidence. This horse would need significant improvement to be competitive. An each-way chance at best if everything goes right.

Moderate barrierInconsistent formLow career place rate

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

Track Form

Distance Form

Recent Form

Class Rating

Jockey Form

Trainer Form

Weight Handicap

Maham

Barrier 1 · 130kg · Form: —

HIGH RISK

CAREER12:1-0

Jockey:Brittany Button

Trainer:Gerald Egan

Maham draws a good barrier but his career record shows limited success, especially over staying trips. While the trainer can get them ready, the lack of recent form and a low career place percentage make him a roughie at best.

Inside barrier advantageLow career place rateUnproven at distance

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

Track Form

Distance Form

Recent Form

Class Rating

Jockey Form

Trainer Form

Weight Handicap

Tradeworx

Barrier 15 · 129kg · Form: —

HIGH RISK

CAREER41:4-3

Jockey:Mitchell Aitken

Trainer:Stephen V Brown

Tradeworx has a high number of career starts but a poor place record and a wide barrier here. It's hard to make a case for this horse given the obstacles and lack of recent competitive runs. Likely to struggle to feature.

Wide barrier drawLow career place ratePoor recent formHigh number of starts

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

Track Form

Distance Form

Recent Form

Class Rating

Jockey Form

Trainer Form

Weight Handicap

Surreal Winston

Barrier 13 · 119kg · Form: —

HIGH RISK

CAREER30:2-3

Jockey:Chelsea Taylor

Trainer:Christopher Davis

Surreal Winston has a wide barrier and a low career win/place percentage, making this a tough ask. The horse has shown little to suggest it can win here. An outsider who will need a lot of luck.

Wide barrierLow career win/place ratePoor recent form

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

Track Form

Distance Form

Recent Form

Class Rating

Jockey Form

Trainer Form

Weight Handicap

Leica Trooper

Barrier 4 · 123kg · Form: —

HIGH RISK

CAREER34:1-4

Jockey:John Keating

Trainer:P M Evans

Leica Trooper has a very low career win rate and a poor place percentage, despite a decent barrier. The horse has struggled to find the winner's circle and this race looks too tough. A definite roughie.

Low career win ratePoor place percentageLack of recent form

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

Track Form

Distance Form

Recent Form

Class Rating

Jockey Form

Trainer Form

Weight Handicap

First Tosen

Barrier 7 · 121kg · Form: —

HIGH RISK

CAREER28:1-2

Jockey:Makisha Salter

Trainer:Gordon Strang

First Tosen has a very low career win and place percentage, indicating a lack of ability to finish strongly. While the barrier is acceptable, the overall form suggests this horse will struggle to make an impact. A long-shot.

Very low career win/place ratePoor overall formUnlikely to feature

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

Track Form

Distance Form

Recent Form

Class Rating

Jockey Form

Trainer Form

Weight Handicap

Turntyne

Barrier 14 · 128kg · Form: —

HIGH RISK

CAREER10:1-0

Jockey:Cian Macredmond

Trainer:Amy McDonald

Turntyne has limited career starts and a very wide barrier, making this a tough assignment. The low prizemoney and poor place percentage suggest this horse is outclassed here. An outsider with little appeal.

Very wide barrierLimited career startsLow career place rateUnproven at distance

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

Track Form

Distance Form

Recent Form

Class Rating

Jockey Form

Trainer Form

Weight Handicap

Inagurate

Barrier 6 · 119kg · Form: —

HIGH RISK

CAREER40:1-3

Trainer:Robert Wellington

Inagurate has a very poor career win and place percentage over a high number of starts, suggesting limited ability. With no jockey named, this horse is a definite outsider. Hard to see it figuring in the finish.

Very low career win/place rateNo jockey namedPoor overall form

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

Track Form

Distance Form

Recent Form

Class Rating

Jockey Form

Trainer Form

Weight Handicap

Groshawk

Barrier 16 · 123kg · Form: —

HIGH RISK

CAREER21:1-0

Jockey:Nathan Punch

Trainer:Aftab Shaikh

Groshawk has a very poor career win and place percentage and draws the widest barrier. This horse is unlikely to be competitive in this field and is a clear outsider. Hard to recommend on any metric.

Widest barrierVery low career win/place ratePoor recent form

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

Track Form

Distance Form

Recent Form

Class Rating

Jockey Form

Trainer Form

Weight Handicap